The weak macro data in August forced the Chinese economy to accelerate tapping potential

Abstract "The weak Chinese economic data has put a tight spell on the stock market around the world." This is a slightly harsh comment from the Associated Press after the recent release of a series of economic data. Although there is no definite evidence that the global stock market is weak and the Chinese economy is straight...
“The weak Chinese economic data has put a tight spell on the stock market around the world.” This is a bit of a harsh comment from the Associated Press after the recent release of a series of economic data.

Although there is no definitive evidence that the global stock market weakness is directly related to the Chinese economy, a series of economic data released recently has not been alarmed. In the official macro data released in August, most of the data was less than expected, and the growth rate of industrial production was a new low.

“Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet”, China’s central bank’s 2014 third quarter series of survey reports showed that the confidence index of Chinese entrepreneurs fell by 1.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nearly 40% of entrepreneurs believe that China’s macro economy is “cold” Again, it cast a shadow over China’s economic performance in the third quarter.

In this regard, Lin Yifu, honorary president of the Peking University National Development Research Institute, said that compared with China's domestic structural factors, the current economic growth rate is more determined by the international pattern, that China's economic collapse has even dragged down other countries. The economic argument is untenable.

“We expect monetary policy to be moderately relaxed, which will provide some much-needed support for demand growth.” Goldman Sachs economist Song Yu said in a recent study on the possible response of the Chinese government to the weak economy.

However, given China’s high-level statements, more people are skeptical about the loosening of monetary policy. On the summer of Davos, which was just concluded in Tianjin, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang made it clear that China does not rely on "strong stimulus" but on "strong reform." This means that in the next four months, policymakers will focus on economic growth potential with reform and structural adjustment as the keynote.

"After 30 years of rapid growth in the fast-growing economies of the world, there is almost no decline." Ma Weihua, chairman of Hong Kong Wing Lung Bank and former chairman and CEO of China Merchants Bank, said that only by working for more quality GDP, To achieve truly competitive growth.

Li Yang, deputy dean of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, agrees with the above view. He said that the current economic growth is the real growth after squeezing out water, and it is a kind of "more quality and more efficient growth." "Under the new normal, the Chinese economy has to 'squeeze out' excess productivity and excess investment. In this sense, it means that the Chinese economy will enter a higher stage of development," Li Yang said.

It should be pointed out that in the face of the slowdown in economic growth, China's top officials reject “strong stimulus” rather than moderate “micro-stimulus”. Lin Yifu said that China's current moderate stimulus is “a lot of resources.” Given the huge potential of private savings, he suggested that he should consider “using government money to start private funds”.

“We are a medium-developed country. What do the medium-sized developed countries represent? Even if your current industry is outdated, you can upgrade the industry and invest.” Lin Yifu pointed out that compared with developed countries, China’s current infrastructure and environmental governance And urbanization are ideal investment areas.

Lin Yifu also pointed out that as a developing country, China's technological innovation is also a huge potential because of its "post-development advantage." "Because of your technological innovation, your industry is upgrading, so you can maintain relatively high economic growth," he said.

In view of this, Lin Yifu pointed out that he is confident in completing the annual economic growth target of about 7.5%.

"I agree with Lin Yifu that (China's economic development) has potential." Huasheng [Weibo], honorary dean of the School of Economics and Management of Southeast University, pointed out that "but the potential is not realistic, there are many potentials, but in the end it can be achieved, depending on Too many factors."

Watson pointed out that the current "digging potential" should not only focus on technological innovation, but also strengthen the reform of the household registration system, so that farmers can be truly liberated from the primary industry and invested in more productive industries and services. It is “integrated into the city from a rural area where the economies of scale are relatively poor and the concentration is relatively low.” This is the “power of China’s economy that may continue to maintain high growth”.

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