The Shanghai rebar market's recent rally has fizzled out quickly, falling short of expectations. As of the close on July 30, the main contract for rebar closed at 3,633 yuan per ton, down nearly 200,000 lots, with a total of 14.12 million contracts traded. According to industry insiders, tight credit conditions and high debt levels are weighing heavily on the steel sector, leading to a sharp decline in trading volumes. Market analysts believe that capital flows will likely continue to suppress any further price recovery in the near term.
Bullish momentum has been under pressure since the start of the year. After the Spring Festival, rebar prices fell sharply due to weak macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand imbalances. Prices dropped for four consecutive months from February to May, falling from 4,241 yuan per ton to a low of 3,391 yuan per ton in June — a drop of over 20%.
However, a brief rebound began at the end of June. From June 26 to July 19, the main rebar contract price rose from 3,442 yuan per ton to 3,712 yuan, while trading volume increased from 1.408 million to 22.1 million lots. Open interest also jumped from 787,000 to 1.344 million lots — a rise of 70.7%. On July 11, the main contract saw a peak transaction volume of 4.5 million lots, but by July 30, it had fallen to 12.79 million — a drop of more than 71.6%. Other contracts did not see similar growth.
Analysts attributed this sharp decline to the withdrawal of speculative funds during the summer period. “The current market is in an adjustment phase, and incorrect market judgments have led to losses,†one expert said. “Capital is even scarcer now.â€
The steel industry is a capital-intensive sector, and its financial constraints are deepening. Due to weak performance in recent years, both producers and traders are struggling. Many steel traders and private companies have faced liquidity crises, with some even abandoning their businesses. Additionally, tight capital chains have led to defaults, lawsuits, and a growing tension between steel companies and banks.
According to market analysts, the high debt ratio and shrinking profit margins make it increasingly difficult for steel firms, especially small and medium-sized manufacturers, to secure loans. Even after the central bank announced full liberalization of interest rate controls on July 21, the positive impact on the steel industry was minimal.
On the flip side, some analysts believe that the current financial stress could eventually benefit the industry in the long run. Jin Rui analyst Zhou Ting noted that the tightening of capital chains may help eliminate weaker players, promoting market consolidation and deleveraging. When capital is abundant, demand for assets like steel can drive prices higher. But when liquidity tightens, prices face downward pressure.
Looking ahead, the second half of the year is expected to bring limited demand. While the “Golden September and Silver October†season typically boosts spot demand, economic growth is slowing, and stimulus measures remain modest. Analysts don’t expect a significant rebound in terminal demand.
Zhou Ting added that the recent price rebound was mainly driven by supply-side production cuts, a trend expected to persist in the short term. In the medium to long term, continued capacity reductions and structural upgrades in the domestic steel industry could reshape the supply-demand balance.
While eliminating outdated production capacity is a tough but necessary step, the implementation of such policies may be challenging. Steel remains a key pillar industry in many regions, providing employment and tax revenue. Therefore, the effectiveness of these reforms might not meet expectations immediately.Container House on wheels mobile home
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