Analysis of China's machinery industry import and export in the first quarter

Customs data reveals a mixed performance in the machinery industry's trade figures for January to March this year. While the year-on-year growth rate of imports has improved, exports have seen a decline. The total import and export volume for the machinery sector stood at $146.381 billion, marking a 2.38% drop compared to the same period last year. This decline was slightly narrower than the previous month, with the decrease in the trade deficit narrowing by 2.06 percentage points from January to February. Exports during the first three months reached $82.108 billion, showing a modest increase of 3.95% year-on-year, but this growth was significantly lower than the 9.27% recorded in January-February. Imports, on the other hand, fell to $64.272 billion, down 9.43% from the previous year, though the decline was less severe than the 10.81% recorded in the earlier two months. The overall trade surplus for the period was $17.836 billion. In March alone, the machinery industry’s total import and export volume dropped to $54.151 billion, a 7.04% year-on-year decline. However, the drop was smaller than the previous month’s 11.97% decline. Exports fell to $29.18 billion, down 6.21% year-on-year, while imports decreased to $24.971 billion, down 8%. The monthly trade surplus was $4.409 billion. Looking at the 13 major industries within the machinery sector, the import growth rate showed notable improvement. Two industries saw an increase in cumulative imports compared to the previous year, with the electrical and electronic sector showing a 2.44% improvement over January-February. Meanwhile, seven industries experienced slower growth compared to the previous period, with construction machinery, heavy mining, and other civilian machinery sectors seeing the most significant reductions in growth. In March, three of the 13 industries reported positive growth, including electrical appliances, instrumentation, and heavy mining. These sectors saw sharp improvements in their growth rates, rising by 31.21%, 29.85%, and 24.47% respectively. In 10 industries, the decline in performance narrowed, with construction machinery and petrochemical general industries showing reductions of more than 30 percentage points from February. The cumulative export growth outpaced import growth, with exports increasing by 3.95% year-on-year while imports declined by 9.43%. The difference between export and import growth was 13.38 percentage points. In 12 of the 13 industries, exports grew faster than imports. Among provinces and municipalities, 22 regions saw faster export growth than import growth, while 10 regions reported positive import growth, with Qinghai, Chongqing, and Heilongjiang leading in import growth. On the export side, 20 provinces and municipalities recorded positive growth, with Tibet, Guizhou, and Ningxia reporting double-digit increases. Asia remains the dominant trading partner, accounting for 48.61% of the machinery industry’s total import and export volume. Trade with Hong Kong remained strong, with cumulative growth of 55.17%, 31.72%, and 30.74%. However, trade with Japan declined sharply, falling by around 6% year-on-year. Trade with Africa grew rapidly, with cumulative growth of 31.89%, 46.09%, and 34.58%. In contrast, European trade saw a decline, with cumulative growth of 3.66%, -7.42%, and -8.38%. Germany, in particular, saw a sharp drop in imports, with a cumulative growth rate of 0.83%, -18.68%, and -17.55%. General trade and processing trade both recorded surpluses, with general trade posting a $5.324 billion surplus and processing trade a $14.985 billion surplus. Private enterprises outperformed state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises, with private companies recording a 14.73% increase in total import and export volume, while state-owned and foreign-funded enterprises saw declines of 6.24% and 7.58%, respectively. In terms of product trade balances, 57 products recorded a surplus, while 35 had deficits. Wire and cable led the surplus category with $2.723 billion, followed by copiers ($1.667 billion) and power tools ($1.383 billion). On the deficit side, automobiles, four-wheel-drive light off-road vehicles, and small cars were the top three, with deficits of $6.257 billion, $4.031 billion, and $2.605 billion, respectively.

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