Trade surplus hit a 9-month low, the appreciation of the renminbi is further eased

On February 14, the General Administration of Customs announced the import and export of China's foreign trade in January this year. Statistics show that in January 2011 China's foreign trade surplus reached $ 6.45 billion, down 53.5% year on year, hitting a nine-month low. Some experts believe that the annual trade surplus will show a gradual reduction trend, and foreign trade import growth is higher than export growth, which will become the main feature of China's foreign trade this year.   According to customs statistics, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports in January 2011 was US$295.01 billion, an increase of 43.9% over the same period last year. Of this total, exports were US$150.73 billion, up 37.7%; imports were US$144.28 billion, up 51%. The phenomenon of centralized import and export before the holiday is more prominent. The import volume of major commodities has risen . The statistics released by the customs said that due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the phenomenon of centralized import and export before the holiday is more prominent, which has become an important factor for the rapid growth of foreign trade in January. the reason. In terms of regions, in January, the total value of Guangdong's foreign trade imports and exports was US$74.17 billion, an increase of 51.7%, of which exports were US$42.98 billion, an increase of 51.8%. The total value of foreign trade imports and exports and the total value of exports continue to lead in various provinces. Among the export commodities, in January, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products reached US$84.55 billion, an increase of 35.3%. Among the traditional commodities, labor-intensive products still maintain certain advantages, including apparel exports of 13.38 billion US dollars; footwear exports 4.11 billion US dollars, an increase of 39.2%; furniture exports of 3.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 36.7%. Among the imported commodities, the import volume of major bulk commodities has increased to varying degrees, and the average import price has increased significantly year-on-year. Iron ore imports were 68.97 million tons, up 47.9%, the average import price was 151.4 US dollars per ton, up 66.1%; soybean imports were 5.14 million tons, up 26%, and the average import price was 558.1 US dollars per ton, up 20.4%. Imports surged contribute to reducing surplus, RMB appreciation pressure to ease further analysis pointed out that a substantial reduction in trade surplus in January was mainly the result of a surge in imports of general trade. It is expected that the growth rate of imports will continue to be faster than that of export growth in the first half of the year, and the surplus may fall back even more, even without the possibility of a monthly deficit. Customs statistics show that in January, general trade exports were 74.89 billion US dollars, up 44.1%; imports were 84.86 billion US dollars, up 55.5%. Under the general trade, the trade deficit was 9.97 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.8 times. In order to promote import growth and promote trade balance, last year, China actively established and improved the import promotion system, improved the degree of import trade facilitation, and organized large-scale exhibitions to bridge the gap between import and export enterprises and guide enterprises to better utilize "two kinds of resources, Two markets". In the same year, the trade deficit was US$47.25 billion, an increase of 9.5 times compared with 2009. "In January this year, general trade imports continued to grow at a high speed, which was not only a continuation of the import momentum last year, but also a reflection of the steady recovery of domestic demand," said Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission. As the trade surplus narrowed to a new low of nearly nine months, the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi was further eased. However, Zhang Yansheng also reminded: "The trade surplus is the result of the division of labor in the world economy, and the trade surplus should be dialectically." At present, China's export economic structure dominated by "foreign-invested enterprises + processing trade" will inevitably lead to a surplus. Customs statistics show that in January, China's processing trade exports reached 65.22 billion US dollars, an increase of 32.7%; imports 37.57 billion US dollars, an increase of 39.8%. The trade surplus under processing trade was US$27.65 billion, an increase of 24.1% year-on-year. Zhang Yansheng believes that this surplus caused by the global industrial division of labor should not be offset by the general trade import. "In the final analysis, to promote trade balance, we must ultimately rely on transforming the way of foreign trade development, relying on science and technology to promote trade and win by quality." Zhang Yansheng said. The overall situation of foreign trade this year is more optimistic. Most analysts pointed out that the import and export data in January reflected that the domestic and international economic situation continued to improve. From the current situation, the future trade situation should be more optimistic in general. Experts believe that the international financial crisis has caused setbacks in the process of economic globalization and has also had a certain impact on China's economic operation, but the general trend of economic globalization will not change. After the international financial crisis, market competition will become more intense. Countries are actively adjusting and cultivating their own new advantages. We must also have a sense of urgency and strive for a more favorable position in the international economic structure. Zhang Yansheng said that at the same time, while focusing on key export markets such as Europe, America and Japan, foreign trade enterprises urgently need to expand into emerging markets, especially to expand regional trade with East Asia, establish and improve marketing networks in emerging markets, and extend and cross-border transfers. The production chain increases the proportion of exports of parts and components, thereby reducing the dependence on the final product market in Europe and America. Customs statistics show that bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, India, Australia, Brazil, Russia and other emerging markets has grown rapidly and has become a highlight of foreign trade. In January this year, China’s bilateral trade in emerging markets continued to show a high growth trend. Among them, the export to ASEAN was 13.36 billion US dollars, up 26.7%; the import from ASEAN was 15.53 billion US dollars, up 41.9%; the trade deficit with ASEAN was 2.17 billion US dollars, up 4.4 times. In addition, China's bilateral trade with emerging markets such as India and Brazil has grown rapidly. The bilateral trade with India was US$6.66 billion, an increase of 44.2%; the bilateral trade with Brazil was US$5.99 billion, an increase of 74.8%.  

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