Sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry

 

Zhengzhou Abrasives Grinding Research Institute Wang Guangzu

1 Introduction

The solar photovoltaic industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the world. In order to achieve sustainable energy and environmental development, all countries in the world regard solar photovoltaic power generation as the focus of new energy and renewable energy development.

Recently, countries around the world have generally promoted the development of renewable energy to a strategic position, and green photovoltaic power generation technology has become the top priority for achieving sustainable development. This undoubtedly stems from two aspects: (1). The inexhaustible use of solar energy resources can be exploited everywhere to exploit the positive impact of '(2) photovoltaic power generation technology on environmental protection [1].

Photovoltaic power generation is a technology that uses the photovoltaic effect of a semiconductor surface to directly convert light energy into electrical energy. The promotion and application of this technology will get rid of the dependence of traditional power generation methods on coal energy.

2 solar cell classification and its market share

The classification of solar cells is shown in Figure 1. Its development has experienced three generations of development: the first generation is monocrystalline silicon solar cells; the second generation is polycrystalline silicon, amorphous silicon and other solar cells; the third generation is copper indium gallium (CIGS) thin film solar cells [2].

Figure 1 Classification of solar cells

However, from the current market composition, crystalline silicon cells are still the mainstream of current solar photovoltaic cells. Crystalline silicon cells are mainly used in solar roof power stations. They are the most mature and widely used solar photovoltaic products, accounting for more than 80% of the world PV market.

The data shows that the market share of thin film batteries has shown strong growth in recent years. Some experts predict that in the short-term, it is expected that the output of thin-film batteries will reach 32% by 2012, as shown in Figure 2.

　　 Figure 2 2012 PV cell production share market forecast

3 World PV industry development trend [3]

3.1 The photovoltaic industry continues to develop at a high speed

The world's solar cell production continued to increase from 2002 to 2009, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Solar cell production by region and country from 2002 to 2009 MWp

From 2007 to 2009, China's solar cell production increased the highest in the world. The average growth rate of solar cell production in the world in the last 10 years was 48.5% (to 2009), and the average growth rate in the last five years was 55.2% (to 2009). In 2009, solar cell production reached about 10.7GWp, an increase of 35% over the previous year. Among them, China's solar cell production market share accounted for 49% of the global market share, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 Market share of solar cell production by region and country

From 2000 to 2009, the average growth rate of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation in renewable energy was the fastest, reaching more than 60%. Grid-connected photovoltaic power generation is increasingly playing an alternative role, as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 Annual power generation growth of power generation mode from 1995 to 2009

A notable feature of the development of the world's photovoltaic industry is that the proportion of grid connection is increasing rapidly, and will become the main trend of power generation in the future. Figure 9 shows the ratio of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation to total installed capacity. Practice has proved that grid-connected solar power plants can peak the power grid, improve the voltage stability at the end of the grid, improve the grid power factor and effectively eliminate the power grid clutter, which has many advantages.

3.2 Development trend

3.2.1 Recent development trends

According to Solar Annual, solar cell production will continue to increase from 2007 to 2011, and still dominated by crystalline silicon solar cells, as shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5 Solar cell development forecast from 2007 to 2011

Solar cell components have been rapidly reduced in cost, and the price of high-purity silicon materials has dropped from $3.55/Wp in October 2008 to $1.78/Wp in December 2009.

Figure 6 Polysilicon material price trend

From 2011 to 2013, photovoltaic power generation can achieve parity online access. The United States is quite optimistic about the decline in photovoltaic power generation costs. It is believed that the cost of photovoltaic power generation will be consistent with conventional power generation costs around 2015.

3.2 Medium-term development trend

According to the new 2020 PV development plan in Europe, by 2020, PV installed capacity will be 400GW and power generation will reach 12.0%. According to the Obama Administration's 2020 development goals, it will achieve 350GW installed capacity . These plans far exceed the road map of the early century.

Table 2 World photovoltaic power generation development roadmap at the beginning of this century GW

3.3 Long-term development trend

According to the European Commission's Joint Research Center (JRC) predicts that by 2030 renewable energy will account for the world's energy mix in more than 30 percent, solar photovoltaic power generation account for more than 10% of total world electricity supply; 2040 renewable energy will more than 50% of total world energy consumption, solar PV will account for more than 20% of total world electricity supply; 21 to the end of the century, renewable energy will account for more than 80% of the world energy mix, solar power will the world's total electricity supply accounted for more than 60%.

4 Status and future of photovoltaic power generation [4]

Photovoltaic technology started in the 1950s, and with the traditional mineral resources are depleted and rapid development in recent years, especially thanks to Germany, Japan, the United States and other developed countries, policy support and ushered in a beautiful spring day.

Reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation is the main driver of photovoltaic technology into the energy market. After nearly 30 years of hard work, the production scale of solar cell factories has been continuously expanded, the degree of automation has continued to increase, the level of technology has been gradually improved, and the effective development of the photovoltaic market has led to the continuous reduction of photovoltaic power generation costs. At present, the production scale of solar cell single-factory has increased from several MW in the 1980s to several hundred MW at present, and the commercial battery efficiency has also been significantly improved.

Figure 7 shows the cost comparison curves of different types of solar cells from 1955 to the present, and predicts the cost of photovoltaic power generation in the next decade. As can be seen from Figure 7, the power generation cost of crystalline silicon solar cells in 2000 is about $0.57/W. Less than $0.25/W in 2005, power generation costs have doubled, and there will be a significant decline in the next decade. Among various solar cells, the cost of concentrating solar cells is the lowest.

　　 Figure 7 Status and forecast of power generation costs for different types of solar cells

Figure 8 shows the US Department of Energy's forecast of PV prices, with SAI being the US Solar Pilot Program. It can be seen from this figure that policy support has a significant effect on the reduction of photovoltaic power generation costs [5].

　　 Figure 8 US Department of Energy's forecast of photovoltaic power generation prices

In the past 30 years, the photovoltaic market has flourished, especially in the last 10 years, the average annual growth rate of solar cell and module production has reached 33%, and the average annual growth rate in the last five years has reached 43% [6].

Figure 9 shows a column chart of the annual output of solar cells in the world. It can be seen that photovoltaic power generation has gradually transitioned from “alternative energy” to “alternative energy”, which cannot be separated from policy support. As we all know, the current cost of photovoltaic power generation is relatively high compared to traditional energy power generation. The simple market pull is unlikely to make the photovoltaic industry develop so rapidly, which is mainly due to the encouragement policies of Germany, Japan, the United States and Spain.

,;

Figure 9 World Solar Cell Annual Production Column Chart

As shown in Figure 10, renewable energy will account for more than 30% of the total energy structure by 2030, and solar photovoltaic power generation will reach more than 10% of the world's total electricity supply; renewable energy will account for total energy consumption by 2040. More than 50% of solar power will account for more than 20% of total electricity; by the end of the 21st century, renewable energy will account for more than 80% of the energy structure, and solar energy will account for more than 60% of photovoltaic power generation, and it shows its importance. Strategic Position.

Figure 10 2004 EU Joint Center Forecast

5 Conclusion

5.1 The vigorous development of the world's photovoltaic industry and market makes photovoltaic power generation occupy an increasingly important seat in the world's energy consumption. According to the prediction of the European Union Joint Research Center, solar photovoltaic power generation will not only replace some conventional energy sources in the near future, but also become the main body of the world's energy supply.

5.2 Despite the emergence of various new concept solar cells and the increasing efficiency, the solar cells entering the civilian sector at this stage are mainly crystalline silicon solar cells, accounting for more than 90% of current production, and it can be determined that this will not happen in the short term. A fundamental change has taken place. However, further development of high conversion efficiency and low cost solar cells has become an inevitable development trend in the photovoltaic field [6, 7].

5.3 After years of development, China's PV industry has jumped to the world's largest photovoltaic industry manufacturing base, accounting for more than half of the world's production capacity. However, the photovoltaic industry is heavily dependent on foreign markets, with an export ratio of up to 90%, and half of the raw materials are from foreign markets. It has brought unstable factors to the healthy development of the whole industry. Therefore, it is extremely urgent to develop the domestic application market of the photovoltaic industry!

5.4 The scale of the world's photovoltaic industry is now in the pattern of China, Japan and Germany. China's photovoltaic cell production does not have an absolute advantage. In particular, the upstream development of China's PV industry chain is lagging behind. At one time, large-scale import of polysilicon was needed to meet the needs of photovoltaic cell production. Even though the capacity of upstream polysilicon has expanded rapidly in recent years, there is still a big gap between the technical level and environmental governance and the world's advanced level.

5.5 After the Fukushima nuclear accident, in 2022, the German nuclear power plant was completely shut down, and it will become the first country in the world to abandon the nuclear power. The bill is expected to be launched in June, which includes vigorous development of wind, solar and bioenergy and the transformation of new smart grids. This is a very noteworthy move.

5.6 The sustainable and rapid development of the photovoltaic industry will provide a huge space for the development of diamond tools for the processing of crystalline silicon materials, including Diamond Wire saws.

references:

1 Li Xiaohua, China's photovoltaic industry and solar thermal utilization industry development model comparison [J] China and foreign energy, 2011,16 (2): 29 ~ 34

2 Zhou Weihong, Jiang Ronghua, etc., China's photovoltaic industry with global competitiveness [J] New Materials Industry, 2011, 1:18-29

3 Zhao Yuwen, Strategic Prospects and Policy Thinking of Photovoltaic Industry [J] Nonferrous Metallurgy Energy Conservation, 2010, 6:1~5

4 Chen Nuofu, Bai Yizhen, Photovoltaic Power Generation and Resource Environment [J] Power Technology, 2010, 19(2): 17~25

5 Li Xiaogang, Feng Shaorui, Technical and Economic Analysis of China's Photovoltaic Industry Development[J]Industrial Technology Economics, 2007, 26(7): 120~124

6 WJ Wang, Y Xu, H Shen, Polycrystalline Silicon thin-film solar cells on Various substrates [J] Phys. Stat. Sol (a), 2006: 203, 721

7 MA Green, Consolidation of Thin-film photovoltaic Technology: The Coming Decade of Opportunity [M] Pro. Phoiovolt. Res. Appl, 2006, 14, 383-392

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