Shale gas cake is difficult to explore and test the technical strength

By 2015, the “Shale Gas Twelfth Five-Year Plan” announced in March of last year aimed for initial large-scale production, with an annual target of 6.5 billion cubic meters. However, more than half the time has passed, and the progress remains far behind expectations. The development of the second round of shale gas bidding blocks is slow and challenging. While major players like "two barrels of oil" (PetroChina and Sinopec) have made notable progress, the cost has been high. Many companies that entered the sector through bidding face issues such as insufficient funding, lack of experience, and technological limitations. The second round of bids concluded a year ago, and the third round is now underway. At this critical juncture, questions arise: What is the current state of China’s shale gas industry? What breakthroughs have been achieved? What are the main challenges? And what should be the focus moving forward? After the initial excitement around shale gas in 2012, the path to a true "golden age" may require more rationality and patience. So far, the goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters per year has not been met. According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, by the end of March 2013, about 7 billion yuan had been invested, with 130 wells drilled, including 46 geological survey wells and 55 vertical wells. Despite these efforts, actual production in 2012 was only about 30 million cubic meters, far below the planned target. Technological advancements have been made, but no national standards have been established. Experts suggest that the industry is still in its early stages, and setting overly ambitious targets may not be realistic. Some believe that focusing on technology and long-term development is more important than hitting short-term goals. Major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec have made significant investments and achieved technical milestones. However, the costs remain high—about two to three times those in other countries. Challenges include complex geological conditions, longer drilling cycles, and limited domestic equipment. As a result, many smaller companies that won bids struggle with funding and expertise, leading to slow progress. Looking ahead, reducing development costs will be key. Companies like Huadian Group have already started exploring ways to cut costs through better planning, efficient drilling, and using domestically produced equipment. Experts estimate that per-well costs could drop from 70-80 million yuan to 40-50 million yuan within 3-5 years. Another challenge is the overlap between shale gas and conventional oil and gas reserves. Nearly 77% of shale gas resources lie within existing conventional blocks, meaning collaboration and resource liberalization will be essential. Policy reforms, infrastructure development, and market mechanisms must also play a role in supporting sustainable growth. As the third round of shale gas bidding begins, the industry stands at a crossroads. Will it finally unlock the potential of China's unconventional energy resources, or will it continue to face obstacles? Only time will tell.

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