The coke industry is not optimistic. After a sharp decline in the previous period, recent prices have continued to weaken as the market adjusts. The main 1405 contract has dropped to the 1,600 yuan/ton level, drawing increased attention from investors and traders. Although macroeconomic data remains positive, rising supply pressures and weak demand are keeping the price trend bearish. This downward momentum is difficult to reverse in the short term.
In the spot market, upward potential is limited. Overall, the domestic coke market has remained stable in the near term, with some local areas seeing slight price increases due to steady transactions. With the steel market rebounding and downstream demand picking up, coke prices in the northern region have started to rise at different levels since late last month. Coking companies have raised prices by 20–30 yuan/ton, and steel mills have benefited from better supplies. While overall market sentiment has improved, the price increases in certain regions remain modest, suggesting that the market is expected to stay stable in the short run with limited upside potential.
The supply-demand imbalance in the steel sector remains a key issue. Steel prices continue to move lower, and downstream steel companies are more cautious in their purchasing behavior. Steel exports have declined significantly, and market confidence is still low. On the supply side, the China Iron and Steel Association reported that in mid-October, the daily crude steel output of key enterprises fell by 2.97% compared to the previous period. Nationally, estimated daily crude steel output was 2.1686 million tons, down 1% from the previous period. Although domestic steel production began to decline in early October, it remains at a high level overall. As steel prices have fallen sharply, and upstream raw material prices have stayed firm, steel mills are now operating at a loss.
Inventory levels are also under pressure. Steel trading companies are eager to reduce stock, and social inventories continue to fall. However, the burden is shifting to steel mills, which may be forced to cut production later. The unbalanced supply-demand relationship in the steel market has led to the failure of the "Jin 9 Silver 10" strategy, and real estate regulations remain tight. With winter approaching in the north, demand is expected to weaken further, leaving the steel market stuck in a weak trend.
Downstream demand for coke remains weak. Since the coking coal market rebounded in August, coking plant profits have surged. High profits have encouraged coking companies to increase their operating rates. According to statistics, from January to September 2013, cumulative coke output reached 356 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year. In September alone, output was 40.29 million tons, up 14.3% year-on-year. However, overcapacity in downstream industries and environmental regulations will likely dampen future coke demand. The State Council has instructed the steel industry to cut 80 million tons of total capacity over the next five years. Hebei, a major steel producer, has pledged to significantly reduce its steel output to address pollution issues. This reduction will directly impact the coke industry, which will face a significant drop in demand moving forward.
Additionally, high inventory levels are putting downward pressure on coke prices. As of November 1, total coke inventories at Tianjin Port, Lianyungang Port, and Rizhao Port reached 2.953 million tons, one of the highest levels in recent years. A recent steel price rebound might encourage some steel mills to restock, but given weak end-user demand, if this restocking demand fades, the supply-demand conflict for coke could intensify.
In summary, the ongoing supply-demand imbalance continues to suppress steel prices, and the steel market remains difficult to be optimistic about. Although upstream raw materials remain relatively strong, increasing losses at steel mills have pushed them further toward production cuts. With the steel industry facing challenges such as overcapacity reduction and environmental compliance, the demand for coke is likely to weaken. Therefore, coke prices are vulnerable to both downward and upward movements, making it a good opportunity for short selling during rallies.
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