Steel sales fell nearly 30% from the previous month

Our data show that the average daily sales volume of steel products of 7 key steel enterprises in the first ten days of December was 1.022 million tons, down 46.20 million tons or 30.36% from the end of November to 1.522 million tons, 8.25% lower than the 2010 average of 1,152,200 tons. We believe that the sluggish downstream demand is the main reason for the sharp decline in steel sales in late December. In the short-term, the macro-level active regulation will begin to take effect, the economy will enter the down cycle, and the weak downstream demand is expected to remain until the Spring Festival. At the same time as sales fell, the ex-factory price of steel mills continued to weaken. The average price of steel products of 76 key enterprises in early December was 4,690 yuan / ton, down by 4 yuan / ton from 4,373 yuan / ton in late November, 4.67% higher than the average price of 4,481 yuan / ton in 2010. We believe that the dealers have exerted great pressure on the ex-factory price of steel due to the unfavourable factors such as the lack of pressure on the goods. At the same time, the supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the ex-factory price of steel may be further reduced. At the same time, crude steel production fell slightly from the previous month. We observed that the average daily output of crude steel in the first ten days of December was 1,673,600 tons, down by 11,600 tons or 0.69% from the 1,685,200 tons in late November; the average daily output of steel was 2,294,400 tons, which was 4.02 million lower than the 2,333,700 tons in late November. Ten thousand tons or 1.72%, which is 13.33 million tons or 6.17% higher than the 2010 average of 2,611,100 tons. There has been a slight increase in inventory. The inventory of steel products of 76 key steel enterprises was 9.33 million tons, up by 21.34 million tons or 2.34% from 9.12 million tons in late November. The stock at the end of the period was equivalent to 6.65 days of daily output, which was 0.53 days more than the 6.12 days in late November, compared with 2010. The average value of 6.28 days is 0.27 days. The stock at the end of the period is equivalent to 8.80 days of daily sales, 2.81 days more than the 5.99 days in late November, and 1.36 days more than the average of 7.44 days in 2010. Investment Strategy: Although the supply side has dropped significantly from the previous high, it is still relatively high compared to the weak downstream demand. It is expected that the shortage of steel mill prices in the short term will be favorable. It is beneficial that the ore cost recovery and the low social inventory will support the current spot price. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel research high sodium, Antai technology and Henan diamond with the concept of new materials. As well as the previous period of oversold, the performance of the stable Bayi Iron and Steel, Daye Special Steel, Sangang Shuguang.

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