The double bad news made the international crude oil market of last week (19th to 23rd) cloudy: First, the international monetary organization lowered global economic growth expectations, and warned that the United States and Europe may have a recession in 2012; subsequently, the Fed issued a statement that The U.S. economy is facing a huge downside risk.
Affected by the above news, last November, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of light and low crude oil in November fell by more than 9%, once fell below the $80 per barrel mark; and ICE monthly settlement of Brent crude oil contract The price fell by $1.52 to $103.97 per barrel, a decrease of 1.44%. The sharp drop in crude oil prices has made it possible for domestic refined oil prices to be lowered again. According to the current price adjustment mechanism for refined oil products, when the average price of crude oil (Brent, Dubai, and Xinta) in the international market changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be adjusted accordingly.
"At the beginning of this month, we have approached the 4% downward adjustment threshold, but then crude oil once again rises. The average price of crude oil prices in the three places on the 22nd for a period of 3 weeks has seen positive growth, forcing the domestic oil retail price reduction window to be closed in early September." Yu Tao, an information oil analyst, told the reporters, “However, the recent pessimistic economic environment in Europe and the United States has created a potential for crude oil decline. If crude oil prices continue to weaken or stay in a negative tone until mid-October, refined oil prices are lowered. The window will open again."
As of September 22, the three crude oils averaged 111.560 US dollars per barrel for 22 consecutive days. The benchmark average price was 112.10 US dollars per barrel, which was 0.48% lower than the benchmark price of the last domestic refined oil price adjustment (April 5).
Analyst Wang Jintao believes that the recent Fed’s concerns about the economic outlook and weak European manufacturing data have triggered another wave of financial market downturn. Risk assets such as stocks and commodities have been sold off, while the US dollar has been used as a safe haven currency. It was buoyed by the fact that the US dollar index touched the highest point in more than half a year, further suppressing the formation of international crude oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. It is estimated that in the current downturn of the international financial crisis, international crude oil prices are still difficult to rise sharply, and the weighted change rate of crude oil in the three places is likely to go down, which in turn affects domestic oil prices.
However, despite the sharp fall in international oil prices, the domestic market experienced a rise in oil prices last week. Shen Tao said that this was mainly due to the influence of various factors such as reconciling raw material prices, speculative oil, and so on. As the weather turns cold, gasoline consumption has entered the off-season and the market is now weak. It is expected that domestic oil prices will rise weakly in the short-term. However, this week is the last week before the 11th holiday, and the probability of a market crash is not significant.
Affected by the above news, last November, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of light and low crude oil in November fell by more than 9%, once fell below the $80 per barrel mark; and ICE monthly settlement of Brent crude oil contract The price fell by $1.52 to $103.97 per barrel, a decrease of 1.44%. The sharp drop in crude oil prices has made it possible for domestic refined oil prices to be lowered again. According to the current price adjustment mechanism for refined oil products, when the average price of crude oil (Brent, Dubai, and Xinta) in the international market changes for more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic gasoline and diesel prices can be adjusted accordingly.
"At the beginning of this month, we have approached the 4% downward adjustment threshold, but then crude oil once again rises. The average price of crude oil prices in the three places on the 22nd for a period of 3 weeks has seen positive growth, forcing the domestic oil retail price reduction window to be closed in early September." Yu Tao, an information oil analyst, told the reporters, “However, the recent pessimistic economic environment in Europe and the United States has created a potential for crude oil decline. If crude oil prices continue to weaken or stay in a negative tone until mid-October, refined oil prices are lowered. The window will open again."
As of September 22, the three crude oils averaged 111.560 US dollars per barrel for 22 consecutive days. The benchmark average price was 112.10 US dollars per barrel, which was 0.48% lower than the benchmark price of the last domestic refined oil price adjustment (April 5).
Analyst Wang Jintao believes that the recent Fed’s concerns about the economic outlook and weak European manufacturing data have triggered another wave of financial market downturn. Risk assets such as stocks and commodities have been sold off, while the US dollar has been used as a safe haven currency. It was buoyed by the fact that the US dollar index touched the highest point in more than half a year, further suppressing the formation of international crude oil and other dollar-denominated commodities. It is estimated that in the current downturn of the international financial crisis, international crude oil prices are still difficult to rise sharply, and the weighted change rate of crude oil in the three places is likely to go down, which in turn affects domestic oil prices.
However, despite the sharp fall in international oil prices, the domestic market experienced a rise in oil prices last week. Shen Tao said that this was mainly due to the influence of various factors such as reconciling raw material prices, speculative oil, and so on. As the weather turns cold, gasoline consumption has entered the off-season and the market is now weak. It is expected that domestic oil prices will rise weakly in the short-term. However, this week is the last week before the 11th holiday, and the probability of a market crash is not significant.
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