According to the latest market report provided by the well-known steel spot trading platform “Nishimoto Shinkansenâ€, the “good†steel market from “energy-saving and emission-reduction†in September has clearly come to an end. Although domestic crude steel production has declined, some steel mills have shown signs of production recovery, and North China has a tendency to go south. Supply pressures in the latter stages of the East China market may increase, and the “push-up†efforts of leading steel mills are also weakening. In October, construction steel prices face some downward pressure.
According to monitoring, the trend of Shanghai's construction steel prices in September can be described as "ups and downs", which is quite spectacular. In early September, under the influence of “energy-saving and emission-reducing sprintâ€, the tonnage of construction steel rushed from 4000 yuan to 4,400 yuan in one fell swoop, and in less than 10 days, the increase reached a staggering 10%, setting a new high for the year. However, due to the lack of sustained good support, coupled with short-term "floating surplus" is too large, demand is difficult to follow up in a timely manner, "high" only maintained for 2 days then turned down, fell back to the 4260 yuan price within 10 days, the decline It reached 31.8%. Subsequently, Shanghai's construction steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range between 4250 and 4300 yuan. It is difficult to see any significant breakthrough in the ups and downs.
Relevant market analysts believe that from the sales data from the early August to early September, the sales level of the steel market basically meets the expectations of the release of traditional demand, and the downstream demand has a certain performance, but there is no abnormal volume. "The signs are. Traditional experience shows that in the coming October, terminal procurement levels should still be at a certain height, but “intermediary trade†may be cautious and the overall demand release may be “steady downâ€.
On the supply side, due to the impact of “energy-saving and emission-reducing sprintsâ€, the actual supply of some steel mills has decreased in the previous period. However, the number of remanufactured steel plants has increased significantly since late September. "This means that late-stage inventory and supply pressures may rise again." At the same time, it is worth noting that with the widening of the spread between the North and the South, the trend of “Northern Goods to South†will become more apparent in the later period, which will also increase the supply pressure in the East China market.
Judging from the iron and steel raw materials market, the iron concentrate market is relatively stable in most parts of the country, with slight fluctuations in some regions. The import ore market continued to decline slightly, with poor transactions. Some small and medium-sized traders appeared to be throwing goods due to financial pressure, but the relevant quotations had not yet fallen sharply and remained in a downward trend. Affected by the reduction in iron ore imports from China, the shipping market has been unilaterally declining recently, and freight rates on several major routes have fallen.
Relevant market participants said that so far, the "golden ninth" steel market consumption is expected to be reflected. The next "Silver Ten" how to perform, there is a certain degree of repeatability, it is estimated that the overall level of sales is difficult to September. The price of raw materials is still in the down channel as a whole, and there is limited support for steel prices in the short term. The ex-factory prices and market prices of steel mills currently also exist in the “upside down†space of between 100 and 300 yuan per ton, and there is still room for further decline in the ex-factory price of the dominant steel mills in the later period.
In addition, the recent restatement and strengthening of the property market regulation and control policy will also have a certain impact on the steel market. In consideration of various factors, domestic construction steel prices in October have a certain risk of a correction, and the price of ton may fall back to 4,000 yuan.