Business Club October 11, 2010
Decision horizon
Since the industrial revolution, humankind’s development and utilization of fossil energy have been increasing, and the energy issue has never been as concerned as it is today. In today's world, the problem of climate change caused by energy supply and fossil energy use has become a focus issue in the global economy and politics. Whether it is a developed country or a developing country, whether it is a big energy producing country or a big consumer country, they are exhausted in energy and related issues, and they are trying hard to protect their own interests in the international game.
One of the reasons why energy conservation and new energy development are receiving global attention is due to the contradiction between the limited supply of fossil energy and the unlimited human demand. In the foreseeable future, the depletion of fossil energy will likely occur. Another reason is that climate change has become increasingly significant, and the international carbon emission reduction mechanisms that are being actively formulated have affected the future development space of most countries.
Many developed countries in the world today are trying to rely on new energy development, improving energy efficiency and other technical measures to promote economic recovery and continue to occupy a dominant position in the future global economic competition. China should place energy-saving and new energy industries in a more prominent position, and use it as the leading force to promote the development of strategic emerging industries.
China urgently needs rapid development of energy-saving and new energy industries
1. Vigorously promote the research and development and promotion of coal and other clean utilization technologies, and strive to achieve low-carbon energy utilization of high-carbon energy is an urgent need for China to reduce the emission of pollutants such as carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide* and protect the environment. Since the founding of New China, China's energy production capacity has increased substantially. The variety and production of major energy products have increased substantially. The energy structure has been continuously optimized and the supply support capability has been greatly enhanced. However, in the energy structure of China, the basic situation based on coal has not changed. It has never been seen that China's coal-based energy structure will be difficult to change for a long period of time because of the state of resource occurrence and industrial structure. In addition, as the most typical high-carbon energy source in fossil energy, China’s coal also has high *, high ash characteristics, which is not only unfavorable to the control of greenhouse gas emissions, but also brought about the emission control of air pollutants such as dioxide*. pressure.
2. The continuous increase in foreign dependence on oil not only increases the risk of China's economic operation, but also greets China. In recent years, as the growth of oil demand is much faster than the growth rate of domestic production, the dependence on foreign oil of our country has rapidly risen. The current degree of foreign oil dependence has reached 51%. According to the "National Mineral Resources Planning (2008-2015)" forecast, if we do not strengthen the exploration and change the mode of economic development, by 2020, China's oil dependence will increase to 60%. In recent years, the rapid development of China’s economy and the dramatic increase in oil consumption have aroused global concern. Some people with ulterior motives began to manufacture and disseminate the “China Energy Theoryâ€, such as seeing China as a predator of international energy. "The Chinese factor is seen as the main driving force for the rise in international crude oil prices. China’s attempts to contain China’s development through oil control are also raging, and China’s pressure to participate in international energy cooperation is increasing.
3. In the next decade, China must place more emphasis on the development and utilization of energy-saving, emission reduction and new energy sources. At the UN General Assembly in Copenhagen, China set out from its national conditions and actual conditions and made its own emission reduction commitments for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 2020 to 45% compared with 2005, highlighting the image of China as a responsible country. However, during the meeting, some representatives of developed countries did not realistically demand that China increase its emission reduction commitment to 60% or even commit absolute emission reductions, and that the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities should be completely excluded. China is still a low- and middle-income developing country. China's carbon emissions are not the luxury emissions of developed countries such as Europe and the United States, but rather the survival of emissions. At the same time, China is increasingly taking on the role of a “world factory,†and the transfer of emissions from developed countries is large and still increasing. China has made concessions on emission reduction assistance. The realization of emission reduction targets will probably rely entirely on its own efforts.
Energy-saving and new energy industries have great development prospects
1. Energy conservation and new energy development and utilization are industries in which China has the greatest impact on the economy and society and has the strongest ability to drive related industries. From the near to medium term, as population growth, industrialization, and urbanization continue to accelerate, especially the rapid development of heavy chemical industry and transportation, cars and household appliances will enter the home in large numbers, and energy demand will continue to rise steadily. The severe energy supply and demand situation coupled with its own emission reduction commitments has determined that any industry and every family in China will participate in the promotion and utilization of energy-saving and new energy resources in the next ten years. In the long run, the impact of energy-saving and new energy industries on economic production and people’s lives will be greater and stronger.
In addition, most of the strategic emerging industries identified by China are closely related to the development of energy-saving and new energy industries and complement each other. It is no exaggeration to say that the development of energy-saving and new energy industries will have a greater impact on other industries and horizontally-related industries in the industry chain. This will make energy-saving and new energy industries become the main growth point in China's economic development in the future.
2. The development of energy-saving industries is a powerful measure for China to speed up the transformation of economic development methods and improve the production efficiency of enterprises. China has proposed the important task of transforming the mode of economic growth from the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" period, but as of now, the extensive growth mode still exists. The apparent low energy use efficiency means that China's energy-saving potential is huge. Strengthening the development of energy-saving industries is an important way to increase energy efficiency and accelerate the transformation of economic growth patterns. From the near-term perspective, the energy-saving industry is undoubtedly an industry with good market prospects, high economic benefits, and the ability to significantly stimulate investment and create job opportunities. The vigorous development of energy-saving industries is a powerful measure for China to further cope with the dual challenges of the financial crisis and global climate change, and is also the main focus of China's grasp of development opportunities in the challenge.
3. The new energy industry is the core force that supports the Chinese economy going to low-carbon, green, and occupying the commanding heights of the technological economy in the future international competition. China's hydro energy, wind energy, biomass energy, solar energy and other renewable energy resources are abundant, and nuclear energy has great potential for utilization. From a technical perspective, except for a few developed countries, there is not much difference between China and foreign countries in the development and utilization of new energy. Some areas even have the advantage of co-development. At present, an international scientific and economic competition centered on low-carbon technologies has quietly begun. Low-carbon and green will be the basic trend of the global economy. In the long run, the core forces that can support the development of a low-carbon economy and accelerate the change in the mode of economic development are none other than new energy technology research and development and large-scale deployment and application. Based on the current conditions of domestic resource endowments, facing future international competition demands, and vigorously building a low-carbon technology system centering on the development and utilization of new energy, it is the core force for China to seize the commanding heights of the future international science and technology economy.