Abstract China's official manufacturing PMI of 49.0 in February was the lowest since November 2011, and it was lower than the glory line for the seventh consecutive month. Expected to be 49.4, the previous value is 49.4. At the same time, the official non-manufacturing PMI announced in February was 52.7, the previous value was 53....
China's official manufacturing PMI of 49.0 in February was the lowest since November 2011, and it was below the glory line for the seventh consecutive month. Expected to be 49.4, the previous value is 49.4. At the same time, the official non-manufacturing PMI for February was recorded at 52.7, with a previous value of 53.5. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the manufacturing PMI fell back. In February, there were three main reasons for the decline in manufacturing PMI:
First, due to the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, some enterprises stopped production and reduced production, and manufacturing production and market demand have all declined. The production index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 48.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and was below the critical point for two consecutive months.
Second, with the slowdown in production and operation activities in the past two months, the purchase of raw materials for enterprises continued to decline. The purchase volume index was 47.9%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and fell for two consecutive months, the latest low.
Third, due to the concentrated return of employees, the amount of manufacturing work has decreased. The employee index was 47.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and lower than the same period last year.
Although the PMI has fallen back, there have been some positive changes. Affected by the recent rebound in crude oil prices and the rebound in prices of important production materials in some circulation sectors, the purchase price index of major raw materials this month rose by 5.1 percentage points from the previous month to 50.2%, and rose to the criticality for the first time since August 2014. Above the point. With the implementation of the state's support for real economic growth and improvement of efficiency and efficiency, corporate confidence has increased, and the expected index of production and operation activities has reached 57.9%, rising to a higher economic range, higher than the same period last year.
In terms of scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point; the medium-sized enterprises PMI was 49.0%, which was the same as last month and still below the critical point; the small enterprise PMI was 44.4%. It was down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month and continued to be in the contraction interval.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index is above the critical point, and the new order index, the employee index, the supplier delivery time index, and the raw material inventory index are below the critical point.
The production index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and still above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production maintained growth, but the growth rate narrowed.
The new order index was 48.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the critical point for two consecutive months, indicating that demand in the manufacturing market continued to fall.
The employee index was 47.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the contraction interval, indicating that the manufacturing industry's employment continued to decrease, and the decline was slightly increased.
The raw material inventory index was 48.0%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month and still below the critical point, indicating that the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry continued to fall, but the decline narrowed.
The supplier's delivery time index was 49.8%, which fell below the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing raw material suppliers' delivery time has slowed down.
Non-manufacturing fell back from last month but continues to be in the expansion zone
The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 52.7, although it fell 0.8 from last month, but continued to be in the expansion range. Among them, the service industry business activity index was 52.2, down 0.5. Zhao Qinghe explained:
Affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the transportation, tourism, catering, telecommunications, broadcasting, postal, retail, banking, leasing and business services industries closely related to festival consumption are active in production and business, and the total business volume has increased significantly. The total business volume of wholesale, accommodation, securities, insurance, handling and warehousing, residential services and repairs declined to a certain extent, which was the main factor in the decline of the business activity index of the service industry.
The index of business activity in the construction industry was 55.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of enterprises decreased and production activities slowed down. The business activity expectation index was 66.3%, up 7.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that enterprises are still optimistic about future market expectations as the climate warming and infrastructure construction accelerate.
In terms of industries, the service industry is affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, transportation, catering, telecommunications, broadcasting and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, postal services, leasing and business services, which are closely related to festival consumption. The retail industry and other industries are active in production, and the total business volume has increased significantly. The business activity index of the wholesale industry, capital market service industry, insurance industry, loading and unloading and warehousing industry, accommodation industry, real estate industry, residential service and repair industry was significantly lower than the critical point, and the total business volume declined. The business activity index of the construction industry was 55.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the growth rate of the business volume continued to fall.
The new order index was 48.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that demand in the non-manufacturing market has fallen. In terms of industries, the service industry's new order index was 48.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's new orders index was 48.1%, down 5.0 percentage points from the previous month.
The input price index was 50.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and rising above the critical point, indicating that the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises used in production operations has increased. In terms of industries, the service industry input price index was 50.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry input price index was 50.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
The sales price index was 48.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and still below the critical point, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices continued to fall, but the decline narrowed. In terms of industries, the service industry sales price index was 48.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry sales price index was 49.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
The employee index was 48.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and still below the critical point, indicating that the number of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to decrease. In terms of industries, the service industry employee index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry employee index was 50.4%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The business activity expectation index was 59.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months and continuing to be in a higher economic range.
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